A four-seam fastball thrown with low spin (1700 rpm) will get a swing and miss about 11.4 percent of the time, corresponding to a five percent SwStr%. Spin Importance – Four-Seam Fastballs 2017-2018 (Min Sample Size 1000)įocus on the the blue and orange lines. With that in mind, let’s look at a some pitch spin metrics. The important take-away is that any advantage taller pitchers have with throwing a curveball is not dependent on spin. We see some random fluctuation with curveballs however, the extremely consistent four-seam fastball numbers paint a very clear picture: Height doesn’t help spin rate. Usually, pitch usage changes go hand in hand with other macro trends, so let’s look at how these pitch types changed between the two time periods. It’s important to note that change-up and splitter usage remained constant. We see a significant decline in two-seam fastballs, offset by a modest increase in four-seam fastballs and large increases in curveballs and sliders. Let’s begin with the macro trend of pitch types as a percentage of all pitches, with our two eras compared. So what’s driving this difference, and why does it benefit taller pitchers more? It appears it boils down to pitch type composition, specifically that there appears to be an optimal height for curveballs and four-seam fastballs, but not for change-ups. Also, we see a markedly different distribution than the previous seasons, with a seeming bell-curve type distribution. It is important to note that this appears to affect only starting pitchers relief pitchers aren’t affected by height (yet). Clearly, something significant, at the macro level, is occurring that benefits pitchers 6-foot-4 more than pitchers at any other height. Swinging Strike% – Starting Pitchers 2016-2018Ĭool! I figuratively jumped out of my seat when the data popped out this way. Let’s contrast the chart shown above to what the data look like from 2016 through 2018. We could have gone with pitch values, whiff rates or some other metric however, I’m a big fan of SwStr%, so we’ll be using that to drive most of our analysis today. It is easy to understand what it means (swinging strikes per pitches thrown) and is a pretty good predictor of performance. I selected SwStr% as the catch-all metric as it works very well as a singular metric to capture value. We see a slight disadvantage in SwStr% (Swinging Strike Percentage) for starting pitchers 6-foot-1 or 6-foot-2 however, there doesn’t appear to be any differentiation other than that. Swinging Strike% – Starting Pitchers 2008-2015 The reason for this is quite interesting, and we’ll explore the data behind it with the helpful aid of some visuals. Further, it appears the benefit of being taller is a recent phenomenon, with taller starters starting to outpace shorter starters.
My hunch was mostly correct, in that height does matter however, what I discovered was that the optimal point appears to be 6-foot-4, with declining returns away from that (in both directions). I nourish my data gut with probiotics, so it’s generally pretty good. My data gut was telling me there was something to the fact that Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw were all 6-foot-3 or taller. My hunch was, despite Glenn Greenberg’s research that there was no performance benefit to height, the fact that all the best pitchers were tall had to mean something. For today’s piece, the data took a very interesting, unexpected turn. In most cases, my hunch is generally on the money, though sometimes it just plain goes nowhere. I begin most of my research with a hunch, which I then test with data. Marcus Stroman is correct that Height Doesn’t Measure Heart however, it definitely measures an individual’s potential to be a front-end major league baseball starter, especially in today’s game. Of the top 23, only five are below 6-foot-3, and all are at least 6-foot-1. All seven of the top pitchers over the past three seasons were at least 6-foot-3, with only two of the top 14 (6-foot-2 Aaron Nola and 6-foot-1 Trevor Bauer) shorter than that. The top pitchers between 20, however, represent a stark contrast. They all accomplished this despite being the size of average human beings. Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez and Alex Bregman were three of the top five offensive contributors in 2018. The 6-foot-5 Justin Verlander led qualified MLB starting pitchers in strikeout percentage in 2018.
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